Workshop II-Anti-government Movement in the Middle East and North Africa

Revolution in Egypt and Tunisia-It's not over yet

The countries that started the wave of Arab change both have a long way to go

The Economist: Mar 3rd 2011

TUNISIA is small and tidy, with a large, well-educated middle class amid its 10m-plus people and a long tradition of quiet politics. Egypt is big and messy, with a lot more people living in its capital, Cairo, alone than in the whole of Tunisia. Its few rich and its throngs of poor live in starkly different worlds, and endured a century of wars and shifting ideologies before the enforced 30-year slumber of Hosni Mubarak’s rule. Yet the revolutions in each country, barely a month apart, followed notably similar patterns. The wobbly aftermaths of those convulsions also look much the same, as Tunisians and Egyptians grope their way into a more complex new world.

Tunis and Cairo remain anxious cities. The thrill of empowerment from the toppling of hated dictators has largely passed. So has the relief that came from the abrupt end to weeks of sporadic revolutionary violence and from diminishing fears of a deeper descent into lawlessness. For the passionate core of revolutionaries in both capitals, which includes Islamists, secular liberals, trade unionists and many in-between, what persists is a determination to ensure lasting change, amid worries over the lingering hold of the ancien régime.
But many among the working poor and middle class are warier of economic pain than they are thirsty for political gain. Petty crime is rising in both cities in the continuing absence of effective police, and businesses are slashing payrolls in response to pinched demand. Owners want order and predictability, and increasingly resent the disruption of strikes and protests.
Yet the protests in both countries continue, and continue to produce results. In Tunisia a sit-in by tens of thousands of protesters led to the resignation of the prime minister, Mohamed Ghannouchi, a holdover from the fallen government of the ousted president, Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, on February 27th. Despite the dissolution of the former ruling party, in which Mr Ghannouchi had been a bigwig for many years, his resistance to a fuller purge and attempts to forge long-term policies were seen as hindering a complete break with the past. Five other ministers soon followed suit, including two from opposition parties, who voiced doubts over the government’s commitment to reform.
The feeble-looking caretaker government, which is to pave the way for elections in July, is now run by Beji Caid Sebsi, an 84-year-old former foreign minister. Acceding to crowd pressure, he has quickly reversed a two-decade ban on Tunisia’s main Islamist party, and freed the last of its prisoners. The assets of some 110 members of Mr Ben Ali’s extended family have been frozen or transferred to state control. But campaigners for democracy would also like the still-sitting pre-revolution parliament dissolved, and a fresh assembly created to draw up a new constitution.
Those last steps have already been taken in Egypt, where the army, much stronger than in Tunisia, has assumed overall control. The 18 generals of the high command have also told a committee to revise the constitution to prepare for an open presidential election in August. In a series of meetings with opposition leaders, they have insisted that they sincerely want an early return to civilian rule. As if to presage that event, the prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, an air force general, stepped aside on March 3rd. Dozens of former officials are to be prosecuted for corruption, in a campaign recently extended to Mr Mubarak and his family.

Explore our interactive map and guide to the Arab League countries

Still, much of Egypt’s disparate opposition remains wary of the generals and nervous lest too rapid a transition empowers remnants of the ousted ruling party and the Muslim Brotherhood, the only broad-based political forces. At the same time, Egypt’s economy has run into trouble. Unlike Tunisia, which relies on summer tourism, Egypt’s tourist industry is year-round and has already been battered, along with many associated services. Egypt also has a high level of government debt, and faces a sharp fall in remittances from an estimated 1m Egyptians working in Libya, many of whom are straggling home to swell the ranks of the unemployed. They are returning to a very different country, excited by revolution but still mired in troubles.