ANALYSIS: Israel watching Egypt anti-government movement closely
By Ofira Koopmans Jan 28, 2011, 14:32 GMT
Tel Aviv - Israel has no wish to see Hosny Mubarak go.
For the past three decades, eight different Israeli prime ministers have nurtured relations with the now 82-year-old Cairo leader.
So Israel is anxiously watching where the anti-government movement in the country to its southern border - its most important peace partner in the Middle East - will lead.
While the protests are front-page news in Israel, the government remains largely mum.
'We are not making any comments except that we are following (events) closely,' said Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor.
'Really, without a connection to the current situation, the relationship to Egypt and Israel is very important for both countries and in the best interest of both people,' he would only add.
But while the government will not say much, analysts go into detail as to what the protests could mean for Israel.
'There's a lot of concern here, for the simple reason that Israal has peace with Egypt and with Jordan, and if the pro-Western governments of these countries go under, then obviously peace would be in danger,' said Eytan Gilboa, a political science professor at Israel's Bar-Ilan University, east of Tel Aviv, Friday.
He believes the popular uprisings spreading in the Middle East, inspired by Tunisia, could be a 'watershed' in the history of the region and the 'start of a major revolutionary movement across the Middle East' - introducing either greater democracy, or bringing to power radical Islamist opposition movements.
If public outrage against government corruption, social conditions and lack of political freedom would bring Islamic fundamentalists to power - as happened with Hamas in the Palestinian areas - the result would be 'disaster' as far as Israel and the West are concerned.
Secular, pro-reform opposition movements gaining ground, on the other hand, could be a positive consequence.
Gilboa noted that while after the Cold War, democratic movements spread across the globe, the Middle East with its autocratic regimes was 'the only place on earth where the public has been oppressed - but silent and passive.'
This now seems to be changing, as the region has entered the information age, and spontaneous demonstrations and calls for democratic and social reforms are being spurred on by social networks on the internet like Facebook and Twitter.
In Iran, they were beaten down forcefully. In Tunisia, they brought down the authoritarian regime of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali. Although developments in Egypt were snowballing quickly and unpredictably, the Israeli international relations expert expressed faith Mubarak, whose security forces are strong, could survive.
But not without being weakened and without heeding some of the popular demands for social reforms and greater political freedoms.
But even if he does survive, and in this year's presidential elections seeks re-election, the man who has led Egypt for 30 years is in poor health and not getting any younger, and the public unrest has questioned succession by his son Jamal.
For Israel, which would like to see a continuation of the Mubarak approach toward it, that is a reason to watch closely.
Egypt became the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with it in 1979. Mubarak has declined to follow his predecessor Anwar Sadat's example and visit Israel to address its Knesset (parliament) in Jerusalem - prompting analysts to speak of a 'cold peace' - but relations under him have been good neighbourly and cooperative ones.
Israeli officials fly frequently to Cairo and Sharm el-Sheikh, as the regional power has played a leading moderating role, whether by trying to broker an Israeli-Hamas prisoners swap, co-battling weapons smuggling into Gaza, or by mediating whenever Israeli-Palestinian ties and negotiations hit another rock.
Apparent alternatives to Mubarak, including an opposition figure like Mohamed ElBaradei, all seem less desirable for Israel.
Although obviously a better option than the Muslim Brotherhood, whose rise would be a nightmare scenario for Israel, Israeli officials have not voiced fond opinions of the former UN nuclear chief. Former deputy premier Shaul Mofaz in late 2007 demanded ElBaradei resign because his allegedly forgiving attitude toward Iran was 'irresponsible' and he was 'sticking his head in the sand.'
But Israel's former ambassador to Cairo, Zvi Handel, reassured his countrymen about the peace treaty with Egypt.
Egypt after Mubarak was unlikely to reconsider it, he wrote in the Jerusalem Post Friday, adding:
'That could lead to conflict that would be disastrous for (Egypt's) economy and for the country's links with the US.'
For the past three decades, eight different Israeli prime ministers have nurtured relations with the now 82-year-old Cairo leader.
So Israel is anxiously watching where the anti-government movement in the country to its southern border - its most important peace partner in the Middle East - will lead.
While the protests are front-page news in Israel, the government remains largely mum.
'We are not making any comments except that we are following (events) closely,' said Foreign Ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor.
'Really, without a connection to the current situation, the relationship to Egypt and Israel is very important for both countries and in the best interest of both people,' he would only add.
But while the government will not say much, analysts go into detail as to what the protests could mean for Israel.
'There's a lot of concern here, for the simple reason that Israal has peace with Egypt and with Jordan, and if the pro-Western governments of these countries go under, then obviously peace would be in danger,' said Eytan Gilboa, a political science professor at Israel's Bar-Ilan University, east of Tel Aviv, Friday.
He believes the popular uprisings spreading in the Middle East, inspired by Tunisia, could be a 'watershed' in the history of the region and the 'start of a major revolutionary movement across the Middle East' - introducing either greater democracy, or bringing to power radical Islamist opposition movements.
If public outrage against government corruption, social conditions and lack of political freedom would bring Islamic fundamentalists to power - as happened with Hamas in the Palestinian areas - the result would be 'disaster' as far as Israel and the West are concerned.
Secular, pro-reform opposition movements gaining ground, on the other hand, could be a positive consequence.
Gilboa noted that while after the Cold War, democratic movements spread across the globe, the Middle East with its autocratic regimes was 'the only place on earth where the public has been oppressed - but silent and passive.'
This now seems to be changing, as the region has entered the information age, and spontaneous demonstrations and calls for democratic and social reforms are being spurred on by social networks on the internet like Facebook and Twitter.
In Iran, they were beaten down forcefully. In Tunisia, they brought down the authoritarian regime of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali. Although developments in Egypt were snowballing quickly and unpredictably, the Israeli international relations expert expressed faith Mubarak, whose security forces are strong, could survive.
But not without being weakened and without heeding some of the popular demands for social reforms and greater political freedoms.
But even if he does survive, and in this year's presidential elections seeks re-election, the man who has led Egypt for 30 years is in poor health and not getting any younger, and the public unrest has questioned succession by his son Jamal.
For Israel, which would like to see a continuation of the Mubarak approach toward it, that is a reason to watch closely.
Egypt became the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with it in 1979. Mubarak has declined to follow his predecessor Anwar Sadat's example and visit Israel to address its Knesset (parliament) in Jerusalem - prompting analysts to speak of a 'cold peace' - but relations under him have been good neighbourly and cooperative ones.
Israeli officials fly frequently to Cairo and Sharm el-Sheikh, as the regional power has played a leading moderating role, whether by trying to broker an Israeli-Hamas prisoners swap, co-battling weapons smuggling into Gaza, or by mediating whenever Israeli-Palestinian ties and negotiations hit another rock.
Apparent alternatives to Mubarak, including an opposition figure like Mohamed ElBaradei, all seem less desirable for Israel.
Although obviously a better option than the Muslim Brotherhood, whose rise would be a nightmare scenario for Israel, Israeli officials have not voiced fond opinions of the former UN nuclear chief. Former deputy premier Shaul Mofaz in late 2007 demanded ElBaradei resign because his allegedly forgiving attitude toward Iran was 'irresponsible' and he was 'sticking his head in the sand.'
But Israel's former ambassador to Cairo, Zvi Handel, reassured his countrymen about the peace treaty with Egypt.
Egypt after Mubarak was unlikely to reconsider it, he wrote in the Jerusalem Post Friday, adding:
'That could lead to conflict that would be disastrous for (Egypt's) economy and for the country's links with the US.'
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